Sunday, November 21, 2010
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Singapore COE prediction
I'm staking my claim! The COE is heading north till late 2014 or maybe mid 2015.
There are a confluence of factors that feed my claim. At this point i'd have to readily admit that its based on a feel and a couple of mental sums but where it lacks in hard quantitative science i hope to make up for it in convincing logic
So here goes, My feel is that the COE will rise till about mid 2015 and things should ease off from there till about 2019. This is based largely on the absence of cars from certain periods in COE history that will create flat spots in the market.
The 2011 cars.
For the last few years, cars registered around 1991 with COE renewals up to 2011 have been the staple of the COE market. These were 20 year old cars purchased during opportune low COE time and renewed during the days of $101 COE in 2001. The situation as we speak now is bleak for cars in this segment as with COE's in an all time high renewing these 20 year old cars will be something you'd have to think about very seriously about. Perhaps a few special cars will survive the 2011 COE but many who missed the boat of the march 2009 PQP of $3000+ will effectively see this segment of cars dissappear. Thus from 2011 onwards there will be no more circa 1991 cars.
1996-2004
between the years of 1996 to 2004 we see practically no more mid to low end cars on the market. In fact as of today, if you do a search for cars registered in the year 2000 on SGCARMART, you'll find less than 10. Of the lot, none are mid to low end cars like corollas, Civics and the like. Its the premium brands that live here. During this period we saw various COE spikes and high ARF values that encouraged people to scrap their cars when their financing broke even to 'upgrade' to a new car with similar bank repayments. The problem with the COE escalation that we will see till 2014 is that because the '96-'04 cars are missing and with the death of 2011 cars, there will effectively be very very little used cars on the market. Thus increasing the pressure onto the new car market and thus overheating the COE market. Even if the government relaxed the zero car growth policy, the pure demand will certainly outstrip the supply.
2005 onwards
Repreive I feel will come in 2015 when the 2005 cars will mature to a nice age of 10 and consider a 10 year PQP to fill in the demand for the vehicle shortage. That too should cool the COE prices down as owners will have more options. Its unlikely we will see further scrapping of 2005 and onwards cars as they were purchased relatively cheaply, and it may not be equitable for them to upgrade during the years of 2011-2014 as the COE (according to my prediction) will be through the roof...
So how high?
As I speak today, the big cc car COE is around $45,000. If the market looks good and no further adjustments are done by the LTA and no SARS or Swine flu outbreak to shatter market sentiment... we will hopefully see no more than $60,000. Some feel $100,000.
So lets see......
There are a confluence of factors that feed my claim. At this point i'd have to readily admit that its based on a feel and a couple of mental sums but where it lacks in hard quantitative science i hope to make up for it in convincing logic
So here goes, My feel is that the COE will rise till about mid 2015 and things should ease off from there till about 2019. This is based largely on the absence of cars from certain periods in COE history that will create flat spots in the market.
The 2011 cars.
For the last few years, cars registered around 1991 with COE renewals up to 2011 have been the staple of the COE market. These were 20 year old cars purchased during opportune low COE time and renewed during the days of $101 COE in 2001. The situation as we speak now is bleak for cars in this segment as with COE's in an all time high renewing these 20 year old cars will be something you'd have to think about very seriously about. Perhaps a few special cars will survive the 2011 COE but many who missed the boat of the march 2009 PQP of $3000+ will effectively see this segment of cars dissappear. Thus from 2011 onwards there will be no more circa 1991 cars.
1996-2004
between the years of 1996 to 2004 we see practically no more mid to low end cars on the market. In fact as of today, if you do a search for cars registered in the year 2000 on SGCARMART, you'll find less than 10. Of the lot, none are mid to low end cars like corollas, Civics and the like. Its the premium brands that live here. During this period we saw various COE spikes and high ARF values that encouraged people to scrap their cars when their financing broke even to 'upgrade' to a new car with similar bank repayments. The problem with the COE escalation that we will see till 2014 is that because the '96-'04 cars are missing and with the death of 2011 cars, there will effectively be very very little used cars on the market. Thus increasing the pressure onto the new car market and thus overheating the COE market. Even if the government relaxed the zero car growth policy, the pure demand will certainly outstrip the supply.
2005 onwards
Repreive I feel will come in 2015 when the 2005 cars will mature to a nice age of 10 and consider a 10 year PQP to fill in the demand for the vehicle shortage. That too should cool the COE prices down as owners will have more options. Its unlikely we will see further scrapping of 2005 and onwards cars as they were purchased relatively cheaply, and it may not be equitable for them to upgrade during the years of 2011-2014 as the COE (according to my prediction) will be through the roof...
So how high?
As I speak today, the big cc car COE is around $45,000. If the market looks good and no further adjustments are done by the LTA and no SARS or Swine flu outbreak to shatter market sentiment... we will hopefully see no more than $60,000. Some feel $100,000.
So lets see......
Saturday, October 23, 2010
W212 Estate spied on local shore
Well I guess its official now.. the W212 Estates have arrived and here's the first one captured by the blog on Singapore streets. This one is an E250 and as of today.. at current stupid COE prices its retailing at $233,888
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Throttle Plate adjustment
Just to add to your sleepless nights, here's an interesting instructional from w124-zone on centering your KE-Jetronic sensor plate.
Throttle Plate Adjustment and Airflow Body removal.
I highly recommend performing the follow procedure if
A) You have a throttle plate that does not travel up and down smoothly, or has no resistance at all.
B) Rough idling
C) Hard Starts
Factory PDF:
<—Adjusting and centering plunger.
<— Removing the KE-Jetronic body itself.
This procedure is pretty easy to do. Remove all fuel lines from the distributor, remove all necessary bolts holding the unit down and undo the ring clamp that holds the rubber boot to the throttle under the airflow body and lift up.
click on link for full how-to
photo from w124-zone.com
Throttle Plate Adjustment and Airflow Body removal.
I highly recommend performing the follow procedure if
A) You have a throttle plate that does not travel up and down smoothly, or has no resistance at all.
B) Rough idling
C) Hard Starts
Factory PDF:
<—Adjusting and centering plunger.
<— Removing the KE-Jetronic body itself.
This procedure is pretty easy to do. Remove all fuel lines from the distributor, remove all necessary bolts holding the unit down and undo the ring clamp that holds the rubber boot to the throttle under the airflow body and lift up.
click on link for full how-to
photo from w124-zone.com
Monday, August 30, 2010
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Amazing W123 Drift Video!
It is a Finnish car competing in the Finnish X-treem PRO Drifting and actually came in third in the overall standing. It is powered by a w210 300TD with a garret GT40 and a modified diesel pump from a w124 no other changes made to the engine :D
You can join Black Smoke Racings Facebook group.
Named: Black Smoke Racings
Watch more Videos at their YouTube Channel!!
http://www.youtube.com/user/BlackSmokeTube
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Saturday, April 3, 2010
S Class Wagons
Well things are a buzz with S-Class Estate Cars. Lately, a friend from KL has just gotten himself a Crayford W116 Estate... (pictures and information will follow) but as serendipity would have it, Sher Min found this forum posting on the OZBENZ site
http://ozbenz.net/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4975&start=0
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
S124 streeeeeetching in progress
Curious photo from Sher Min.. no doubt found in the ends of the interwebs... A S124 in the process of being stretched?
Sunday, March 21, 2010
W204 Diesel Turbo Estate for sale
Ok friends.. things getting really interesting here on our island... up for sale by Hin Lung is a W204 C200 CDI estate... yup its an oil burner
now the tough part is that assuming this is a Euro IV, V or VI compliant car, it will be subject to x4 tax.. my quick calculation finds the Annual tax at $2684
Sunday, February 28, 2010
More cars for sale!
Yes... its not an estate car but i thought it deserves special mention.
Lau has another up on the market
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